I'm convinced that by far the most important part of the game is the initial placement of settlements. I was third to play, so had not expected much. I was tired, too. But I was still alert enough to realise that, in this game, ore was likely to be lacking. The ore hex with the robber on it in the photo below had number 9; the others were 3, 11 and both 12s. So I knew I needed to be on that 9 ore. I was a little surprised that neither Richard nor Sheila had already taken it. I could have chosen the spot with access to clay (4) and sheep (6) but decided it was more important to have a good supply of wheat (6) and thus also had access to sheep (10).
By the time I got to place my second settlement, there was no way to get both clay and wood. I wanted an 8 hex, since 6 and 8 are the most commonly rolled, and decided that wood was probably better than clay, since it gave me another possible ore hex (albeit on a 12) and another wheat (9). If I'd opted for the clay 8 hex, it would have been on its own since the corner with wheat and ore was taken. In addition, the 8-wood hex was close to the wood harbour, so I knew I could use it for trading.
Not having clay, I wanted to build the minimum of streets, trading wood for clay in the early stages. I found myself, repeatedly, with the resources for a development card; so, as it was the extended game where we could all build/buy after each turn, I bought another card every time I had 7 or more cards in my hand. In the course of the game, I collected seven of them. I hoped, of course, for some victory points or at least a 'year of plenty' resource card. Instead, I managed to buy six knight cards, and one monopoly. I used the monopoly (on clay) about half-way through the game, when a fair amount of clay had just been collected, and was able to build another two streets and a settlement on (ironically) the clay harbour.
As so often happens, it wasn't obvious that I was doing quite well. It took me a while to get any cities, since I kept having to give up a wheat and an ore for another development card. Peter went straight for the longest street - and retained it. I rarely go for that anyway, but knew there was no chance without any clay hexes. But with my handful of knights, I could easily get the largest army. I expected people would move the robber onto one of my resources but they didn't - since I wasn't winning - so I started using the knights when I had about eight points. I got the largest army and was suddenly co-leading with Peter. I still had a couple of unplayed development cards, which of course were knights but everyone else thought perhaps one of them was a victory point.
Then I managed to gather resources for a couple more cities (and yet another development card) during the last rounds, meaning that, once again, I won. Only just. I don't know why I won, since I didn't have a lot of numbers. 4s and 5s were rolled quite a bit, and I had neither. I had two 9s, but they didn't come up all that often, and by the last round my ore 9 was blocked by the robber. And Richard - who played first, and had pretty good numbers which were frequently rolled - didn't do well even with Tim advising on strategy. I suppose it's because he had no access to ore.
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