Three-person Settlers of Catan game

We've played many games in the past eight months, but this blog was getting a bit tedious... so I left it for a while.

On Tuesday afternoon our son Tim arrived, very tired and decidedly out of practice with Settlers of Catan. But he suggested a three-person game anyway. It was a nice board. We all started with a wide selection of numbers, and either four or five resources. Tim and Richard soon took a couple of useful harbours, and it all seemed quite even, although I was lagging behind. However I managed to take the longest street card, pushing me up to 8 points, only one behind Tim and Richard who were each on 9. I vaguely thought that play would continue for a while, and that any of us could have won. I was the only person who had played any knights, so I thought I might take the longest army in a turn or two...

Then Tim's turn came round. He had sufficient cards to build more streets, and take the longest street from me. And then revealed that he had THREE victory points:


Apparently he could have won in his previous turn (with 12 points) but hadn't remembered that he could declare victory points immediately they were bought. He only bought three cards in all. And it wasn't as if all the victory points were at the top of the pack since I had bought knights in between his cards. And it had been well shuffled.

So the final score was: 14 to Tim, 9 to Richard, 6 to me.

Settlers of Catan for four

Our game of Seafarers of Catan was over so quickly - it was only 9pm when we finished - that we decided to play a quick game of regular Settlers as well. We kept the same pieces: red for Richard, white for Tim, brown for Sheila and orange for me.

I went first, and took the predictable 4-5-8 with clay, wood and wheat. Richard was next; he decided to go for numbers, so took 6-5-9 on sheep and two wood. Then it was Tim, who took 5-9-10 on two ore and clay. Sheila likes the last position best; she was able to take four useful numbers (3, 8, 9 and two 10s) with all resources other than sheep. Tim ended his placement with a lot of ore, no wood or sheep, and six good numbers (3, 4, 5, 6, 9 and 10). Richard lacked wheat after his second placement, and didn't have as many numbers as he would have liked (2, 5, two 6s and two 9s). And I then had nowhere to get ore - which can be a big problem. So I opted for the least bad numbers that would give me the other some sheep, and ended up with six (3, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 11).

And I forgot to take a photo at the end of our settlement placements. However, I took this one shortly afterwards when we had all built at least one street - there was no real shortage of clay and wood at the start of this game - and both Richard and Tim had built a new settlement (Richard on the ore harbour; Tim, who would really have liked the ore harbour himself, on a 3:1).


It wasn't too long before Richard took the longest street card, and shot into the lead. He had six points; Sheila and Tim each had four, and I still had three:


However, Tim and Sheila both managed to build cities. Richard (lacking wheat) could not do so, and my lack of ore made it equally difficult. So Sheila caught up with Richard:


They each had seven points, while Tim and I each had five. And due to the placement of the hexes, there were very few building spots left. Tim and I didn't have any; Sheila and Richard each had one left. But Richard and I were having a hard time building any cities. He did manage one, and I managed two... but Tim, with his plentiful ore, upgraded all four of his settlements to cities. He also bought development cards since there was nothing else for him to do... and then won the game, by playing his third knight (thus gaining the largest army) and revealing two hidden victory point cards:


He hadn't expected to win, when Richard stopped him from getting the ore harbour. If he had been able to take it, he would probably have won rather more quickly. But it was quite a decisive victory since nobody else had more than eight points.

Two-person Settlers of Catan game with Tim

In December and January, Richard and I played quite a few two-person Catan games. But then we got into Seafarers and Cities and Knights... and while we continued playing the basic Settlers game regularly with our friends, I'm quite surprised to find that the last time we played a two-person straight Settlers of Catan game was in the middle of January.

I did then play one two-person regular Settlers game at the end of April, with Tim. But the last time I played any two-player Catan game was when Richard and I played Cities and Knights at the end of April, just after returning from the UK.

So when Tim suggested a game last night, when Richard was out, I was rather out of practice. Tim had played our family two-person variation on Settlers more recently than I had.

We start with three settlements each, to get the game going. I rolled first, so I placed my first one on the 6-9-3 with clay, wood and ore. Looking at the hexes, it was clear that ore was likely to be in very short supply; the 3 was the most hopeful place for obtaining it. After my initial placement, Tim put two settlements down, and took resources for one of them. He took another spot on the same 3-ore hex, bordering 4 and 8 on sheep and wheat, and also took the 5-10-9 with two wood and a wheat.

Then it was my turn to place my final two settlements, with resources for both. I needed sheep and wheat ;that was easy to obtain with an 8 on wheat, 3 and 4 on sheep. Then I looked at my numbers. I had access to 3 (twice), 4, 6, 8 and 9. I was lacking 5 and 10 (as well as 2, 11 and 12, but they're less important). So I chose the 2-5-10 with another chance of ore on the 2, another clay, and more sheep. I hoped to go for the nearby clay harbour too as an early strategy.

Tim likewise looked at his numbers, and opted for the 5-6-11 with two wood and a clay. It didn't give him great access to clay - and we don't allow player-to-player trading in the two-person version of the game - but did give him a nice selection of numbers.


With six settlements, the game got going fairly quickly. I built out to the clay harbour, and Tim took the wood harbour which looked as if it would be very useful to him. I then built to a 3:1 harbour, while Tim - despite the general lack of ore - upgraded to two cities. The wood harbour was very useful to him in this.

I finally managed to upgrade to my first city by using the useful 'year of plenty' card, which I had bought, and also rolling a 7. In the two-player game, we don't take a resource from the other player when a 7 is rolled; instead we take one from the bank matching whatever hex we put the robber on. So I placed him - several times in the game - on the 12-ore hex.


We did entirely forget until about half-way through that we usually have the robber (when a 7 is rolled) controlled by whichever player is behind in points, regardless of who rolled it. But since we hadn't remembered, and were fairly even anyway, we decided to abandon that rule for this particular game.

The next achievement was Tim gaining the longest street card. We both thought for a moment that we were competing for a building spot - but I wanted the 10-3-desert intersection with two sheep (since by this stage I had the sheep harbour) whereas Tim wanted the 9-10-11 on wood, sheep and clay. So there was no clash of interests. Neither of us is a particularly aggressive player, and there's plenty of room on the board for two players so there's no real need for racing to particular building spots.


By this stage, I'd managed another city so I had 9 points. Tim also had 9 points on the board, so the longest street card gave him 11. We agreed that we would play to 16, as usual for the two-player Catan game.

It didn't take much for me to extend my streets and take the card from Tim. I calculated my streets carefully and realised that since I only needed two more building spots by this stage, and had plenty of spaces, I could extend it to 13, which Tim couldn't beat. Since I kept on picking up wood and clay - which I no longer needed - it was easy enough to keep extending it.


So at this stage, Tim had 12 points - one more settlement to build - and I had 10 on the board plus the longest street, giving me 12 too.

I upgraded my final city; probably I should have attempted to build my last two settlements rather than worrying about completing my street. Tim built his last settlement easily and then started buying development cards. Since he had excellent access to wheat and wood, plus the wood and wheat harbours, he was easily able to buy at least two on every turn. Whereas I needed the resources I had to build.


So Tim had 13 points on the board, and I had 11 on the board plus the longest street. We were still even... but I assumed that Tim probably had at least one victory point card hidden. He had played two knights, as well, so it was only a matter of time before he declared the largest army.

And indeed, that's what happened. He played a third knight card, and then showed not just one but two victory points:


So Tim has now won four out of four games he has played in five days since returning to Cyprus... an impressive record.

Settlers of Catan in the evening

The same group that met for a Catan game last Thursday evening gathered once more. This time, John and Sarah played separately but Richard and Tim formed a team. They play very differently from each other, so it was interesting to know how they would work together.

They rolled to go first. Playing Richard's usual red pieces, they had some discussion about starting but opted for the good numbers of 5, 8 and 9 on sheep, ore and clay respectively.

Sheila was second, with her usual brown pieces. She opted for the other obvious place: 4-6-9 on ore, wood and clay. That would probably have been my starting spot of choice, had I played first. The numbers were not quite so good as Tim and Richard's choice, but wood is generally more useful than sheep. Then again.. it didn't look as if there would be a lot of sheep in the game, if numbers were rolled as expected.

I was third. With the two prime locations taken, I decided to opt for numbers rather than three resources. So, playing orange as usual, I took the 5-8-9 on two wheat and wood. Of course I had a faint hope that I might be able to access the wheat harbour.. but it seemed pretty unlikely that it would still be available.

As it happened, it wasn't until John (playing white) got to place his settlements that the rather nice 4-6-10 (two ore and wood) intersection was taken. He went for numbers rather than resources, it seemed, since he started without either sheep or wheat.

Jörn (blue) and Sarah (green) played in between John and me; both of them were able to access all five resources, at least in theory, with their placements, and also had a reasonable selection of numbers. So by the time I got to place again, there wasn't much available. I decided that it was most important to have ore, and I really wanted a 6 if possible. So I opted for the coastal 6-4 spot, which gave me yet more wheat in addition to a useful ore place. Possibly I should have placed my street heading inland since I had little hope of getting to the wood harbour before Sarah did, but I knew I had plenty of space for expansion in the wheat section near my first settlement.


By the end, Tim and Richard probably had the best selection of numbers, although I was quite pleased with mine too. They were lacking wheat; I was lacking both sheep and clay.

With plentiful ore and wheat, I managed to build my first two cities fairly easily. Sarah took the wood harbour, so I knew I would have to do any expansion via my other settlement. Clay was somewhat at a premium, but others wanted wheat so I was able to trade, and built a couple of settlements around the 8-wheat hex. John expanded towards the wheat section too, since that was a resource he lacked; in doing so, he was the first to take the longest street card.

I was actually in the lead at this point in the game, with six points. This seemed rather surprising, since the lack of clay was holding me back. I had considered expanding out towards the 5-clay hex, but only ever managed one set of street resources at a time. If I had built one, or even two streets, I could pretty much guarantee that Jörn would have then built one of his to block me.


Sarah, who also had good access to ore and wheat, had also built two cities and had five points. John also had five, with the longest street card, as did Tim and Richard. Jörn and Sheila each had four. It was still very even.

I continued being lucky with rolls and trading, and was able to expand further inland to take a double-wood slot next to the desert. Although, unfortunately, I then kept forgetting to take the relevant wood resources when a 6 was rolled! I was handed the longest street card, which put me more firmly in the lead with eleven points. All I needed was one more city, and I would have won... although I'm pretty sure I did not realise this at the time!


Tim and Richard had built all their cities by this stage - despite still lacking wheat - and had nine points. Sheila had seven, and everyone else had six.

My hope of victory diminished when Jörn joined up his sections of street, and thus took the longest street card with nobody able to take it from him.

Finally I had the resources for three streets in my hand, so I built out towards the 5-clay hex. Not that clay was going to do me much good at this stage - but it was another building spot. Sheila had taken the ore-wheat one which I'd hoped to take near my main expansions so this was my last possible place to build.


So, once again, it could almost have been anybody's game. Tim and Richard were now in the lead with ten points, but Jörn and I were both right behind with nine points each. Sarah and Sheila each had eight, and John had seven. John still had three possible building spots; I had one, Richard and Tim shared one possibility with John; I had the one on the clay which I technically shared with Jörn, but he needed to build some cities first, and I almost had the cards in my hand for that settlement...

Then it was Richard and Tim's turn. I picked up wood, which was the last resource I needed to built my settlement on their building phase.

Except that there wasn't one. They played a third knight card, thus taking the largest army, and another two points.

Once again, Tim had won. That's three wins in the three games we have played since he arrived here last Thursday. According to my statistics on the side of this blog, he's now won 10 out of the 20 games which he's played with us since I started recording them at the end of last year.


Still, nobody was completely trounced. Jörn had ten points, Sarah had eight, and the rest of us each had nine.

Settlers of Catan for... seven

There were seven of us around the Catan table last night. Actually there were eight, but two-month-old Elisabeth wasn't contending to play just yet. John and Sarah decided to play together, so we had a six-person game. Even though Tim had arrived in the early hours of that morning, and Richard and I were both extremely tired.

Tim, playing green, rolled to place first. And with the entire board at his disposal, he opted not for a standard three-resource spot, but for the 5-6-9 with two wheat and a wood. Excellent numbers, to be sure; and he was hoping to gain the wheat harbour. But not the place i would have chosen in his shoes. Which was fine, since I played second so I was able to opt for the 5-8-9 intersection incorporating ore, sheep and clay. While sheep isn't the most useful resource, I could see that both clay and ore might be in short supply, so I hoped I was well-placed for both.

Sheila (brown) was third, and took the spot I would have taken if Tim had opted for my first choice. She had the 4-8-9 on wheat, wood and clay. Jörn (blue) was next. He always likes to have ore at the beginning, so opted for two wood and ore, with 4, 5 and 11 as his numbers. The it was Richard (red). He likes to ensure an 8 and a 6 if possible - and certainly one of them. So he took the 4-6-11 with ore, sheep and clay.

Finally it was John and Sarah's turn, playing the white pieces. They were quite surprised that the 4-6-9 (two wood and a wheat) intersection was still available. I was surprised too, since that would have been my third or fourth option. The numbers were better than either Richard's or Jörn's choice - at least, if they were rolled with statistical likelihood. They were also able to take the 8-10-12 with sheep, ore and clay, thus ensuring them access (at least in theory) to all five resources, and five excellent numbers in addition to the 12.

On the way back, we all attempted to take spots that would give us the resource we lacked so far and, where possible, some new numbers. I would have liked somewhere with a 6, but there was nowhere obvious, so I plumped for reasonable access to wood and wheat. Tim, continuing in the 'ore-wheat strategy' was pleased to be able to place his final settlement on an intersection with two ore and a wood. He lacked sheep, but there were clearly going to be plenty of sheep in this game.


In the first few rounds, 6 was rolled several times, and 8 not at all. 9 didn't appear either. Nor, surprisingly, did 7. I finally bought a development card and was pleased to find that it was a street-builder; extremely useful early in the game. Tim managed to build a city rather quickly, and we all headed for our first planned spots. I took this picture when Tim and I each had four points, while everybody else was on three:


So it was a very even start to the game.

I never like to poach on other people's potential building spots if I can help it, so wasn't entirely sure where I would go next. I didn't need to think too hard, since 9 - the number which would have given me a street each time - continued to be non-existent. I did manage my first city, however, and then decided to aim for the 6-10 intersection on the coast, since I didn't have a 6 and since Tim wasn't aiming for that spot.

Gradually we were all expanding... and suddenly we noticed that Richard had, at least for now, the longest street:


Tim was just in the lead at this stage, with six points. Richard, Jörn and I each had five. John and Sarah had four, and Sheila had three.

Then Sheila built inland, blocking a potential building spot for both Richard and Jörn. I started thinking about the ore harbour, since rather a lot of 5s were being rolled. I could see that Jörn would have liked it too, but he had a few possible places. I didn't plan to take the 8-sheep spot that he was looking at.


I had drawn equal with Tim at this stage; both of us on seven points. But it could still have been anyone's game.

The next excitement was that Jörn took the longest street, although I did grab the ore harbour:


However Tim was still expanding fast. He had built all four of his cities already, plus a couple of settlements, so was well in the lead with ten solid points. Jörn and I each had eight, John & Sarah and Sheila each had six, and Richard - who was struggling to build a city - was just behind with five after he lost the longest street.

Then John and Sarah played a third knight card, and thus took the largest army and another two points. Richard managed his first city. And while everyone else kept losing cards to the robber, I was lucky - and despite having a lot of cards in my hand, did not roll a seven. So I built two streets and a settlement out to my final building spot on the not-terribly-useful spot on the desert.


So Tim was still in the lead with ten points, and I was right behind with nine. I could potentially build two more cities, and planned to buy cards as well in the hope of some victory points. John and Sarah also had nine points including the largest army; I could see that they had other hidden development cards, and wondered if they were victory points since they didn't play a fourth knight on their turn - and thus risked losing the largest army card to Sheila, who by that stage had also played three knights (and had some hidden cards too).

Jörn, who still held the longest street card, had eight points; Richard and Sheila each had six. We knew that things could change rapidly, of course....

... Which is what happened when Sheila played another couple of streets, and thus overtook Jörn's longest street.


So she now had eight points, and he was back on six.

9s were being rolled more often, which wasn't much use to me now as I didn't need any streets. So when Tim's turn came round and he monopolised clay, I wasn't too worried. He had the clay harbour, and we all assumed he was going to build another settlement on the other desert building spot. He muttered about his maths, not sure if he had calculated right...

.. and then surprised us all by placing, instead, six streets.

Not one extra point, but two as he took the longest street card, and neatly won the game.


It turned out that John and Sarah were also very close to winning, since they had two hidden victory point cards, and thus (including the largest army) eleven points.

Settlers of Catan for two with Tim

Richard was out Monday evening, and Tim had wanted to play a two-player Settlers of Catan game with me... so as we weren't in the UK for much longer, we decided to have a game. And, just for a change, we used his tiles which are the American version with graphics rather different from either the German one or the new international one with a grid.

I was kind of tired.. and forgot to take a photo until we'd placed a couple of streets. But this shows our starting three settlements (Tim blue, me orange):


As usual with a two-player game, we both had a good range of numbers. I had potential access to all five resources, although it was evident that clay was likely to be in rather short supply. Tim decided to head for as many harbours as possible.

Surprisingly, however, several 3s were rolled early in the game, which gave me the clay I needed for quite a few streets. Tim collected a lot of wood and sheep and traded four to one with the bank for his clay. I reached a 3-1 harbour first, and also the sheep harbour (the picture is cut off in the photo but it's the one next to the 3-clay hex). Tim, meanwhile, built a city pretty early in the game:


I don't usually think about the longest street, but simply because I was expanding I was the first to get to five streets. So we both had 7 points on the board, but I was ahead... which isn't actually a good thing in the two-player game, since our house rules state that when a 7 is rolled, the person who is behind on points controls the robber. Quite a few 7s were rolled, so Tim got to move the robber (and take a matching resource from the bank) several times.


With his good access to ore, it wasn't all that long before Tim had built all four of his cities. And I could see that he was going to take the longest street too. What I'd forgotten was that Tim's strategy isn't the same as Richard's. He liked being a point behind, and ensured he stayed that way so that he continued to control the robber...


He joined up his two sections of street to take the longest street card.. but another 3 was rolled, and I was able to join up two of my sections as well, so as to keep the card. So by this stage we both had 11 points on the board, but I was still ahead. We were both buying cards too, hoping for either victory points or knights to build the largest army. I had also finished building my four cities... and had just two streets remaining in my hand. I had one building spot, but two settlements. And I pondered out loud.. do I join up another section of street, giving me 14 (and thus unassailable as far as the longest street went) or do I use them to provide a final building spot....?


As it happened, I didn't get to decide. The robber was on the 3, and 2s were not rolled. Tim, however, with the ore harbour, was able to get plenty of clay, and finally took the longest street card from me:


I couldn't build the two streets I needed. And somehow I still thought the game would continue a few more rounds. So - since I had the sheep harbour - I built another settlement using the cards in my hand, which would have delighted my youngest friend Helen who loves sheep:


We play to 16 points in the two-player Settlers game, but Tim actually won with 17 by placing another settlement, and buying another card which gave him two extra victory points:

Settlers of Catan for six in the UK

Today, our older son Daniel and his girlfriend Becky came down from Carlisle to stay for nearly a week. Both of them are big fans of Settlers of Catan, so after we'd eaten this evening we got out the full game.


Tim started (green), I was second (orange), then Becky (blue), Daniel (brown), Richard (red) and my mother (white). There were some quite nice spots for us all in the first round; I wasn't really thinking and didn't grab a clay hex when I could have done; clay was clearly going to be the most difficult resource (if the dice rolled as expected) in the early part of the game. However, since my first settlement was near a sheep harbour, I decided to put my second one on a good place for sheep which also gave me three different numbers.


Play was very even at first, each of us in turn getting a third point, and then a fourth.


I like the extra building phase in 5-6 person Settlers; as each person finishes their round, the cry of 'anyone building?' goes up. Richard said 'yes' at one point... when he was literally building his remaining pieces into some kind of construction....


.. which Daniel then photographed at an unusual angle when it was done:


The main feature of this game, in its early stages, was sheep. My 19-month old friend Helen would have delighted in my hand at one point:


It was surprising how evenly play continued, with building a bit slow but quite a few development cards being bought. At one stage we all had four points, then I had a fifth. So naturally, I was attacked with the robber:


However that changed when Becky took the longest street with 5 roads, I took it from her temporarily, and was significantly in the lead for a while with 10 points, but it was evident that she was soon going to catch up. I had no access to clay at the start of the game, other than by trading, and even by this stage my only clay hex was a 12 which wasn't rolled very often.

I took a slight risk on expanding outwards, after some useful trading (and the sheep harbour), and was able to get a final building spot. I did have a potential other one but since my mother is the least experienced player, I didn't want to take her very last building spot on the 4-ore hex.


Daniel made a vain attempt to take the longest street, having collected quite a bit of clay and wood, but to no avail. Becky took it back from me, and held onto it.

With six people, the board soon fills up. So most of us reached the stage where we had nowhere else to build. Cities had been relatively easy to come by, but there are only four each. So after I'd managed my last settlement, I bought a card - it was a monopoly. There were a lot of sheep in the game and I had the sheep harbour so I monopolised sheep on my next turn and was able to buy four cards. Three were knights, one was a victory point.

I had thoughts of building up the largest army but could see that others were much more likely to get there first. Still, the board was pretty even: 10 points for Becky; 9 points for me; 8 points for Tim and for my mother; 7 points for Richard; 6 for Daniel (who was extremely tired).



But before I'd had a chance to play even one of them, Tim played his third knight, giving him the two points for the largest army of Catan, and since he also had two victory point development cards he was the winner once again with 12 points.

Four person Settlers in the UK

We're now in the UK.. so away from our usual Settlers of Catan playing friends. But we won't have to suffer withdrawal symptoms because we're staying in my mother's house, where there are TWO Settlers sets. Tim lives here as a student, at present, and has a copy of the American version of Settlers; my mother who also likes the game has the modern version of the game, plus 5-6 player expansion.

So we decided to play our first game on Wednesday evening. I played orange, as usual; Richard was red, Tim blue, and my mother white. it was quite a nice board with the desert in the middle and a selection of reasonable initial placement spots. We did try to persuade my mother that her coastal one wasn't such a good idea, but she wanted spots near to where she was sitting. Ore, it seemed, was going to be in short supply.


The first few rounds went fairly evenly. Ore was not as lacking as we expected, and we soon each built either another settlement or a city. Then Richard and Tim each built another settlement, giving them both four points.


Ore continued to appear, and numbers like 2 appeared more often than it should have done. It wasn't too long before Tim had built all his cities. So he had 8 solid points, and some building spots left; Richard, however, took the longest street card, giving him 9 points by this stage of the game. My mother and I were lagging far behind with 4 and 5 points respectively. I didn't think my numbers were too bad, but somehow they didn't come up.


Richard and Tim kept blocking each other with the robber, which was fine as it gave me a chance to expand a bit more. Richard hoped to extend his long street right across the board, but Tim blocked that - although it didn't particularly help him. By this stage in the game, Richard had 10 points while Tim still had 8, and I was catching up with 7:


Richard and Tim were also rather fighting over building spots. Tim took what turned out to be his last settlement, and started buying development cards and playing knights.

After a little over an hour, Richard had gained 11 points including the longest street, and I - since nobody was attacking me - had also somehow managed to gain 11 points. Tim had 9 points, but had played a couple of knights so was evidently going to gain the largest army card. So any of us could have won, if we had just one victory point card.

I was going to buy two more cards when my turn came round... but Tim played first. So he took the largest army card, and then displayed his victory point.


He was pleased to be the winner in what was a very enjoyable game.

Two-player Settlers game with Tim

This afternoon, Tim suggested playing another two-player game.

Once again, it was pretty fast-paced, since Tim thinks at great speed. We both had good starting places with reasonable resources and a good spread of numbers. Early in the game he was convinced I was racing ahead and that he couldn't possibly even begin to compete. But then he started buying cards, something he doesn't often remember to do, and was pretty lucky in his choices.

I usually buy cards anyway, so it was quite interesting that while Tim had some very useful cards: - including two monopoly cards and a victory point:


Almost all of mine were knights.


I made a strategical error at one point in the game when I had a huge handful of cards, some of which I could trade 2:1, sufficient for a settlement and three streets. So I built the settlement, then thought I'd aim for the longest street card.

My two sets of streets were separated by four intersections, so ideally I should have had four streets to complete them; I did think about waiting, but with so many cards in my hand I was likely to lose them if a seven was rolled.

As Tim pointed out later, I'd have done better to build four streets and gain the card, and leave the settlement for another turn, since it was a safe spot. As it was, I thought that by building three I would block him.. and realised, as I put them down, that he only needed to build two streets to block me, and then gain the longest street card himself.


Still, with my handful of knights, I did gain the largest army. I then built my final settlement - cities came quite early in this game, giving me 15 points. Tim had 14 points on the board. So it was very close, and in the end he won by luck as much as skill, since he produced his victory point development card as he built his final settlement.

Perhaps it's better to play to 15 rather than 16, since that element of development card luck doesn't then have so much significance. Then again, having the largest army relies on buying at least three knights, and as the cards above show, that too has a strong element of luck.